Update: Ebola Projections

One of the forward-facing projects that I’m working on at HealthMap is our interactive Ebola projections. (In fact, they just went live this week!) They’re based on the IDEA modeling method that I’ve been using for the past couple of months. Taking advantage of the control parameter inherent to the modeling method, the interaction component allows users to explore different control scenarios and see how they impact growth (overall and by country).

While I’ll be updating the HealthMap projections frequently, I plan to continue posting high-resolution (still-frame) projection infographics here, too. (Sometimes, it’s easier to take a closer look at what’s going on when nothing moves!) Today, I wanted to share the following four figures:
R0_all_as_is_9.25R0_liberia_as_is_9.25R0_SL_as_is_9.25R0_all_9.25_year_endWe start with a region-wide projection through the end of October. In the middle are country-specific projections for Sierra Leone and Liberia. (I decided to exclude Guinea from today’s chart set because growth seems to be tapering off. However, model estimates for Guinea are available at HealthMap!) Finally, there’s a region-wide projection through January 6th (year-end). Please note that all four projections assume current conditions.

Please Note: I do not factor under-reporting into my Ebola projection models. Those of you who follow me on Twitter know why. I’ll write up a quick blog post ASAP with an explanation (and also outline a method that may help us get a better, more probabilistically defensible idea of what under-reporting of Ebola really looks like in countries affected thus far).

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