Last Update: 29 October 2014 [Charts]
Current Update: 19 November 2014 [Data Source] A few notes:
1. On October 29, the WHO reported ~3500 new cases and thus, a tremendous spike in cumulative cases emerged (shown here). However, about 700 cases were retracted between October 31 and November 5 (likely due to reconciliation of multiple data sources). To smooth the cumulative case and lab-confirmation curves, data from October 29 and October 31 were not included…
2. However, data from these dates were included for the monthly epicurve. Because a large number of cases were added late last month and then retracted in early November, the number of new cases reported this month appears small compared to October. While it’s possible that growth of new cases is indeed slowing, ongoing data reconciliation may be the most significant driver of this phenomenon.
3. Fully-updated data for Liberia are missing from the latest WHO Situation Report. Because of this, the current charts artificially deflate both caseload and case growth in Liberia. (Meanwhile, case growth seems to be accelerating in Sierra Leone as Guinea sustains.)
Bottom line? Even if growth in Liberia is truly on the decline, resurgence is a very real risk. This outbreak isn’t over yet, and it’s more critical than ever that we remain vigilant.